The report estimates that revenues from the offshore wind O&M market segment will continue to grow and the share of offshore wind O&M market will be 19% of the total market in 2020.

A 191-page research report is said to provide an understanding of the technology, key drivers and challenges in the global wind power market. It also provides historical and forecast data to 2020 for installed capacity and power generation. The report details global market size of wind O&M market, market share by company type (original equipment manufacturers, independent service providers, and in-house), O&M market share by onshore – offshore wind market and key company analysis.

The report provides market data on out-of-warranty turbines (in MW), gearbox repairs and refurbishment market (in units) and blade repairs (in units) during the period of 2011 to 2020. Countries analyzed in the report include China, the U.S., Germany, Spain, and India.

Steady growth in the forecast period

Global wind energy installed capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of 26.2% from 74,107 MW in 2006 to 237,354 MW in 2011 of which 39,151 MW came online in 2011. Global wind power markets recovered in 2011 after a 10.9% fall in annual additions in 2010 as major wind markets such as the U.S., Germany and Spain faced economic problems following the global economic crisis.

Wind power has become an important player in the global energy market, with the growing equipment market creating many employment opportunities. Wind-turbine installations in 2010 amounted to more than $38.3 billion. The industry also provides employment to over 450,000 people worldwide. The exponential growth of the wind-energy market is fueled by depleting fossil fuel reserves, the declining cost of wind power generation and a growing sensitivity for the environment supported by financial incentives by various governments across the world. China, the U.S., Germany, Spain and India are the major wind markets in the world accounting for a 72.3% share of the global cumulative installed capacity in 2011.

The growth of major wind power markets (the U.S., Germany, Spain, France, Italy, India and China) is expected to slow down during the forecast period 2011–2020. Emerging markets from Asia-Pacific and South and Central America will gain a considerable market share. The growing Asia-Pacific wind power market powered by India, China and other emerging countries such as Republic of Korea, Thailand and Philippines will continue to drive the market in the region. Countries such as Argentina, South Africa, Philippines, Ukraine, Brazil, Republic of Korea and Mexico are some of the nascent wind markets which are set to expand rapidly in the forecast period. Against this backdrop the global wind power installed capacity will reach 718,052 MW by 2020.

China emerged as the largest wind power market

China’s wind power market is growing at an enormous pace and emerged as the largest wind market in the world in 2010 when it surpassed the U.S. The country has transformed its position in the wind industry from a mere player in 2001 to a market leader in 2010 on the basis of strong government support for the industry. The cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China has increased from 2,604 MW in 2006 to 60,307 MW in 2011 at a CAGR of 87.5%. Government support in the form of favorable rules and regulations and a speedy approval process drove the Chinese wind market to achieve a Y-o-Y growth rate exceeding 100% from 2006 to 2009. The country added 13.8 GW of installed capacity in 2009, doubling the capacity for the fourth year in a row to 25.9 GW. In 2010, China added 18.8 GW of annual capacity at an annual growth rate of 72.4% and in 2011 the growth in annual growth rate further slipped down to 34.8%. Supportive government policies which include an attractive concessional program and the availability of low cost financing from government banks are critical reasons for the success of the Chinese wind power market. It is expected that China will continue to promote wind power to reduce its carbon footprint and increase rural electrification.

The U.S. is the second largest wind power market with a cumulative global share of 20.3% in 2011. Germany is the third largest wind power market in the world with a share of 12.1% in 2011 (13.7% in 2010). Spain, which is the fourth largest wind power market with a cumulative share of 9.4% in 2011. The other major wind power markets include India with a share of 6.2% (6.6% in 2010), the UK with a cumulative share of 2.9% (2.6% in 2010), Italy, and France with a share of 2.8% each (2.9% each in 2010), Canada with a share of 2.1% (2% in 2010) and Portugal with a share of 2.0% in 2011 (2.1% in 2010).

Offshore

Wind gaining momentum

The offshore wind market is expected to become one of the major market segments of wind power generation during the forecast period. Offshore wind power installations accounted for 1.6% of the global wind power market in 2010. It is being increasingly explored across the world for its high yield due to stronger and more consistent winds compared to onshore with scope to construct massive GW-scale projects. The UK, Germany, the Netherlands, the U.S., and China are the biggest offshore wind power markets in the world with a number of projects currently in planning and under construction. With an increasing number of countries exploiting offshore wind potential during the forecast period 2011 to 2020 it is expected that its share in the global wind power market will reach 9% by 2020.

Global wind operations and maintenance

The global wind O&M market grew from an estimated $2.6 billion in 2006 to $5.8 billion in 2011 at a CAGR of 17.8%. Key drivers for the increase in revenues are increasing installations backed by financial incentives, capital subsidies, and tax rebates. The other major-market drivers are component failure rates and ageing wind turbines in operation. The O&M market growth is restrained by a lack of skilled manpower and the cost of logistics. Against this backdrop, the global wind O&M market will reach $13.1 billion in 2020 at a CAGR of 9.4%.

Offshore wind: 6.3% of total wind O&M market

Offshore wind accounts for 6.3% of the total wind O&M market in 2011. Offshore wind attracts higher O&M costs in comparison to onshore wind. Lower turbine availability, high-logistics costs and a lack of skilled manpower makes offshore wind service more challenging than onshore wind. Although onshore wind also faces logistics and manpower issues, the impact of these factors on the offshore segment is higher. It is estimated that revenues from the offshore wind O&M market segment will continue to grow and the share of offshore wind O&M market will be 19% of the total market in 2020.

Independent service providers (ISPs) gaining market share

Original equipment manufacturers dominate the wind O&M market with a share of 72.2% in 2011. It is expected that the share will fall 5.2% by 2015 because there will be increased competition from Independent Service Providers (ISP) in major wind O&M markets such as Germany, Spain, the UK, the U.S. and China. Vestas, Gamesa, GE Energy, Enercon, Siemens, GoldWind, and Sinovel are some of the main OEMs that account for the majority of market share in 2011. Large OEMs such as Vestas, Gamesa, GE, and Siemens are signing long term service contracts to negate the impact of ISPs in the wind O&M market. ISPs will continue to gain market share in the post-warranty market as they are accessible, study local conditions well and are cost efficient. By 2015, ISPs will have a 20% share of the total wind O&M market. Wind farm owners’ (WFO) share in the wind O&M market accounts for 11.7% in 2011 and most of the owners who perform O&M in-house are utilities with vast experience in handling large power projects.

Post-warranty maintenance market

This is one of the major drivers for the increase in revenue of the wind O&M market. Many turbine sales before 2009 had short service contracts from OEMs. Most of these contracts signed in the last five to six years are nearing completion and wind-farm owners will be looking for new vendors. It is estimated that 70% of the wind capacity that was online until the end of 2010 was under manufacturer’s warranty. About 139.2 GW of capacity of the 198.2 GW cumulative wind capacity by the end of 2010 was online for less than five years. In the U.S. alone around $40 billion worth of wind installations will be out of warranty in 2011, which is a huge market opportunity for ISPs and OEMs. Most ISPs are entering the wind O&M market to gain market share in the post-warranty market. On the other hand OEMs are signing long term contracts ranging from five years to 20 years (for new and existing customers) to outsmart ISPs in the O&M market. Increased competition among OEMs and ISPs is expected in the near future. GlobalData estimates that the out of warranty or out of service contracts turbines market will increase from 25,118 MW in 2011 to 80,592 MW in 2020.

Skilled technicians a key O&M challenge

The availability of skilled and training technicians to perform O&M on-site of a wind farm is a critical challenge. On-site O&M work introduces challenges to technicians such as working at more than 200 feet in the air, harsh weather, and working inside nacelles’ tight quarters. The wind O&M market needs workers with specific skill sets. Manpower hired for on-site wind O&M must be highly responsible, able to manage and understand the technology, organized to face challenges such as heights, harsh weather, and work in tight quarters.

Technicians need lengthy and comprehensive training before working in such a business environment. Many wind OEMs, ISPs and operators are planning to double or triple their workforce in the next three to four years. According to American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), the U.S. wind O&M market will require 80,000 highly trained technicians in the next 20 years. Siemens, a leading turbine manufacturer, employs 1,500 people in its global service organization. The company has plans to triple its headcount in the next four years as it expects to expand its foothold in the market from 11 GW of installed wind power to 55 GW in the next five years. Therefore, the availability of skilled manpower in such a fast growing market will be a daunting task for companies in the future.

U.S. the Largest Wind O&M Market in the World in 2011

The U.S. is the largest wind O&M market in the world and accounts for 20.2% of the total market size in 2011. It is expected that the share of the U.S. in the global O&M market will increase to 23.8% in 2020. Germany is the second largest wind O&M market in the world and accounts for 18.3%, followed by China with a 14.6% share in 2011. China is expected to surpass Germany to emerge as the second largest wind O&M market by 2013 and in 2020 China will account for 18.8% of the global market size. Spain is the second largest wind O&M market in Europe in 2011. The country accounts for 13.9% of the global market share in 2011, followed by the UK which accounts for 6.4% of the global market. The UK will surpass Spain to emerge as the second largest wind O&M market in Europe by 2015 and will account for 11% of the global market in 2020. India accounts for 4.5% of the global market in 2011 and others contribute 22.1%.

GlobalData
www.globaldata.com

Windpower Engineering & Development

Overall, the yoke is said to reduce installation time by about 50 minutes per turbine.

A recent hydraulic lifting yoke from Danish company Fyns Kran Udstyr (FKU) has been tested in the world’s largest offshore wind farm, London Array. The company says the yoke makes handing offshore turbine foundations faster, cheaper and more secure.

Typically, it can take up to an hour to prepare to lift the 370-ton foundation parts, also known as Transition Pieces or TP’s, from dock to vessel and vessel to offshore structures. With the hydraulic yoke, the TP is ready to lift within 10 minutes with only one employee needed to handle and adjust the TP.

The yoke is hoisted onto the flange on the top of the TP. The hydraulic system then secures the yoke to the flange and the TP is ready to lift. During the lift, the hydraulic yoke adjusts the TP near to the center of gravity. At this point the TP is  level so the risk of tilting when the TP is placed onto the vessel is minimal. The same safety remains at sea, where it is even harder to handle the enormous foundations.

Windpower Engineering & Development

In the United States, Goldwind turbines are in operation or due to be operational in Minnesota, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Iowa, and now Montana. Goldwind also recently announced deals of 34.5 MW in Chile and 15 MW in Ecuador.

Officials with Volkswind USA and Goldwind USA says that Chicago-based Goldwind USA has acquired two, 10-MW wind farms, referred to as the Musselshell Project, in Shawmut, Montana. Volkswind has obtained the necessary permits for construction and secured power purchase and interconnection agreements with NorthWestern Energy. The project is expected to begin construction soon with commercial operations as early as Q3 2012.

The Musselshell wind-farm concept originated with a landowner who worked with Volkswind to advance the project. Volkswind has been building and operating wind farms in Europe since 1993. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

According to Jeffrey Wagner, President of Volkswind USA, Goldwind’s permanent magnet, direct drive, and grid-friendly turbines provide an ideal fit for the site. “Goldwind’s gearless technology is relatively unique in the us market. Its megawatt size, efficiency, and reliability perfectly matches the requirements of the wind farm,” said Wagner.

Company VP Matthew Olive says the deal demonstrates continued acceptance of Goldwind’s technology in the West. “This sale marks our 14th deal in the Americas since we entered the market in June of 2010,” he added.

“This project marks Goldwind’s third acquisition in the United States accompanied by our project in Pipestone, Minnesota and our 109.5 MW Shady Oaks project in Lee County, Illinois,” said Goldwind USA CEO Rosenzweig. “Through our affiliate, Goldwind Capital, we have worked to offer a variety of financing solutions to support our customers’ projects in the United States, including common equity, mezzanine financing, and project finance.”

“I’m pleased to welcome Goldwind and the local tax revenue and jobs this project will bring to Montana,” said Montana’s senior us Senator Max Baucus, who met with Goldwind Group CEO Wu Gang and Tim Rosenzweig in Beijing in 2010 to discuss opportunities for doing business in Montana.

Goldwind USA
www.goldwindamerica.com

Windpower Engineering & Development

The 2000 series SoDARs measure vertical and horizontal wind speed, and wind direction with 10-m resolution up to 700m.

The 2000 series SoDARs are intended as high-altitude sensors. These use three parabolic dishes in three separate enclosures. The 2000 series can operate in lower power consumption mode, pulsing each antenna at different time intervals. Or, they can be configured to sample all three beams simultaneously, increasing the number of complete samples during the averaging intervals. This unit captures data in real-time. The 2000 products measure vertical and horizontal wind speed, and wind direction with 10-m resolution up to 700m. The digital facsimile offers a look at the atmospheric structure exposing inversions and other critical information. The equipment can work remotely or in a network.

Atmospheric Systems Corp.
www.minisodar.com

Windpower Engineering & Development

-NSK

Machines that manufacture advanced wind turbines and towers depend a lot on conventional yet also advanced manufacturing methods, such as welding. One welding-machine manufacturer recently called on a linear motion and assembly-technology company to help improve custom welding machines for the wind industry. Such welding equipment is used to build turbine towers up to 100-m high.

Typically, a machine rolls a metal plate, often 709 grade 50 carbon steel. into a cylinder called a “can” that measures about 9-ft long by 8 to 15-ft dia. Another machine then welds along longitudinal seams to complete the can and then circumferentially to join them with multi-pass butt welds made by submerged arc welding.

The weld head is suspended from a cantilevered guide rail for outside welding. Most of the machine is stationary while the weld head moves short distances on two and three axes, both along and across a seam. A linear control actuator at the end of a horizontal arm determines the motion of the weld head. Smaller can sections are welded on a large assembly line, called a growing line.

Welding procedures and consumables can vary based on tower requirements for height, design, and location.

After assembling the sections and adding internal tower equipment, such as ladders, they are transported to the installation site, lifted into place, and bolted together.

Welding requirements for offshore tower construction are impacted by the tower’s large size and associated nacelles, as well as the thicker steel required for strength and fatigue resistance. Joining thicker steel sections with larger weld joints requires using a greater volume of welding consumables, thus requiring additional welding passes. This adds time and cost to the job.

Fabricating towers capable of resisting extreme environmental conditions requires thicker plate, or higher-strength steel, or both along with higherstrength weld deposits. Welding such material requires welding procedures and filler metal with a chemical composition that delivers the same mechanical properties in the weld deposit.

Using consumables intended for offshore towers minimizes the associated welding problems, such as cracking. Submerged arc-welding flux and electrodes have been developed to provide the strength and impact properties required for onshore and offshore towers, including the more rigorous requirements of coldclimate towers.

A recent welder is said to give operators the flexibility to control every aspect of the welding output to provide the best results for an application. Enhanced control over the welding waveform let operators weld at significantly higher deposition rates than comparable conventional power sources, thereby improving weld productivity and reducing costs. In addition, multiple power sources can be used to weld with multiple arcs to increase deposition rates and reduce the number of passes required to fill the joint. This decreases production time and consumables, contributing to lower overall wind project costs.

Windpower Engineering & Development

For 2007 through 2011, Value Proposition studies revealed that the MISO region realized between $4.3 billion to $5.7 billion in cumulative savings.

The Midwest Independent Service Operator says its annual Value Proposition study shows it provided between $2.2 and $2.7 billion in quantitative benefits for the region in 2011. The regional transmission organization provides the benefits through its ongoing grid reliability and efficiency measures. “This study breaks down and analyzes hard data to show exactly how those savings occur,” says MISO CEO John Bear.

For instance, the study identifies $2.2 to $2.7 billion in economic benefits delivered to the region in 2011 from the following areas:

• Improved reliability ($320 to $479 million)
• Market commitment and dispatch ($426 to $470 million) through dispatch of energy, regulation, and spinning reserves
• Wind integration ($163 to $196 million)
• Compliance ($62 to $93 million)
• Generation investment deferral ($1.4 to $1.7 billion) through footprint diversity, generator availability improvement, and demand response.

New in the 2011 analysis is compliance as a quantitative benefit. In its role as a balancing authority and planning authority, MISO performs many compliance activities that would otherwise fall to its members to complete. These efforts alone save members between $62 million and $93 million per year.

In addition to quantitative benefits, MISO also continues to demonstrate significant qualitative benefits for its wholesale market participants including:

• Price and informational transparency
• Planning coordination
• Seams management

The complete 2011 Value Proposition study, including detailed calculation methods, is available here: www.misoenergy.org.

Windpower Engineering & Development

The research shows that wind energy technology was far from static over the study period, and estimates that the levelized cost of wind energy is now trending towards an all-time low within fixed wind resource areas.

Briefing materials are available to summarize a recent analysis of onshore wind energy cost trends. The analysis was conducted jointly by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), titled: “Recent Developments in the Levelized Cost of Energy from us Wind Power Projects.”

The briefing presentation summarizing the work is at: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/wind-energy-costs-2-2012.pdf. (Side note – portions of this work were also presented in a multi-part webinar in December 2011, with audio and video is available at: http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/filter_detail.asp?itemid=3337).

The LBNL-NREL work analyzes wind energy costs in three time periods: projects installed 2002 to 2003, projects installed 2009 to 2010, and projects based on current wind turbine pricing and to be installed in ~2012-2013. The research shows that wind energy technology was far from static over this period, and estimates that the levelized cost of wind energy is now trending towards an all-time low within fixed wind resource areas. Key findings include:

• When only accounting for capital cost and capacity-factor trends, the levelized cost of wind energy based on current turbine pricing is estimated at 5 to 26% below the previous low in 2002-2003, depending on the quality of the wind resource. When also considering plausible assumptions for O&M, financing, and turbine reliability trends, levelized cost reductions are estimated at 24 to 39% since 2002-2003.
• These trends have been driven primarily by sizable improvements in capacity factors within individual wind resource classes due to hub height and rotor diameter scaling, and by the drop in wind turbine prices over the last 2 years. Longer-term improvements in O&M, reliability, and financing are also playing a role, though trends in these factors are less certain. Technology advancement and learning clearly still apply to onshore wind-energy technology.
• The levelized cost of wind energy increased significantly between 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 due to turbine price and project cost increases that were not fully offset by performance improvements. Turbine prices have since declined, while performance improvements have continued, yielding a substantial predicted decline in the levelized cost of wind energy.
• The levelized cost of wind energy in the best wind resource sites is approaching about $0.03/kWh (with available federal tax incentives). Due to improvements in low wind-speed technology, the gap between the cost of wind energy in low and high wind speed areas has narrowed considerably, opening new areas of the United States for potential development.
• The amount of land area in the United States that can support 35%+ project-level capacity factors has increased by 130 to 270% since 2002-2003 due to improvements in turbine technology. The amount of land area that can support wind projects with costs of under $0.05/kWh (with federal tax incentives) has increased by almost 50% over the same time period.
• Despite recent advancements, at least three factors may intervene to raise the levelized cost of wind energy for purchasers:
• The potential for increased pricing if demand for wind turbines begins to catch up with available supply, or if other exogenous influences are triggered (e.g., higher commodities and/or labor costs)
• The potential continued trend towards lower wind speed sites as a result of transmission and siting restrictions, and
• The potential loss of federal tax incentives for wind energy after 2012, which currently reduce the cost of wind energy for purchasers by nearly  $0.03/kWh.

LBNL
RHWiser@lbl.gov

National Renewable Energy Laboratory
eric.lantz@nrel.gov

Windpower Engineering & Development

The data, collected by renewable energy assessment and forecasting company 3TIER,  shows departures from long-term mean wind speed with above normal areas in red and below normal areas in blue and provides an indication of how wind projects should have performed relative to their long-term production average based on their location. This type of analysis enables financiers and operators to perform portfolio analysis across regions and quickly view the effects of weather anomalies on both existing and proposed investments.

In 2011 wind speeds across Europe varied considerably from region to region. In the UK, Scandinavia, and around the Baltic Sea wind speeds trended roughly 5-10% above normal. Meanwhile southern Europe experienced wind speeds up to 10% below normal except for a few isolated areas along the Mediterranean coast. The 2011 annual map is based on total variance from average for the full year and does not depict the significant wind speed variability that occurred from month to month and quarter to quarter. This is shown in the 2011 quarterly maps, which illustrate departures from average ranging from -20% to +20%.

2011 began with substantially below normal wind speeds across a majority of Europe due to a high-pressure ridge known as a Greenland High. This structure was hovering over the western Atlantic Ocean late in 2010 and began to shift eastward toward the northern Atlantic in early 2011. This created a blocking effect above the UK, causing severe deformation to the storm track as well as warm temperatures and substantially low wind speeds in the UK, France, and Germany in the second half of the first quarter.

In the second quarter, this ridge started to break down resulting in numerous storms and anomalously high wind speeds over a broad swath of northern Europe. During this period, below normal wind speeds were primarily constrained to Spain, France, northern Italy, and areas of Ukraine and Russia. The third quarter featured milder anomalies, though an area from the UK to the Baltic Sea remained above normal. Finally, the fourth quarter enhanced this pattern, with substantial positive deviations across northern Europe, and negative deviations highlighted in Spain and a broad land area between the Adriatic and Black Seas.

The wind performance maps were created by comparing hourly data for 2011 with hourly wind conditions averaged over the period 1981-2010 from 3TIER’s continually updated European meteorological dataset. When comparing 2011 with over 30 years of hourly wind speed data, the most similar year to 2011 in its anomaly pattern is perhaps 1990. That year, however, saw much more dramatic departures from normal than this past year. Final wind speed values for the 2011 analysis were computed using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model run at a 15 km resolution and adjusted using available observations. The underlying datasets for 3TIER’s wind performance maps provide clients with operational intelligence for every location within a region and are available in nearly all regions worldwide.

Windpower Engineering & Development

A wind assessment along with transmission and environmental studies, can also tell if it is feasible to put together several land owners to commercially produce power. Landowners can try to put together a wind project on their own but it’s a complex process that often benefits greatly from the expertise of a community developer. There are several business structures that guide development of community wind.

Site assessments are actually not required by law, but certainly before permitting a wind farm, authorities ask for a lot detail about the wind regime that an assessment provides. Also, banks providing the financing will require not just one assessment, but more likely two or three. Different firms use different techniques. With such a big price tag on theses projects, its common sense to get several assessments. If the two or three are within reason, the banks feel better.

The assessment comes in different phases. The first is prospecting. It answers the questions: What is the potential of this area? What are the prospective wind speeds in the area, and what do state resource maps say about the wind in a certain local?

While the meteorological tower is collecting data, for example, other companies are planning tasks such as pinpointing the best wind resources in an area, looking for residences, roads, and set backs needed for historical sites, and microwave beams paths.

A site assessment ranges from $15,000 to $30,000 not including met towers. Those might add another $15,000 each. Software used in the assessment also helps establish a setback from homes for the wind farm. This is to make sure residents endure only minimal noise and shadow flicker. Such an event occurs on sunny days when the rotor’s shadow passes over a building. Flashing or flickering bothers some people. Simulation software now predicts the effect and helps avoid it.

Software also calculates the cumulative flickering during the year. There is no universal standard for the number of hours a person might tolerate, but a German standard has set a period of not more then 30 hours per year as a maximum exposure. This is a commonly accepted standard and all assessment groups try to mitigate shadow flicker exposure as much as possible.

Two additional studies (ecological and historical) are done by biologists and anthropologists who will walk the proposed site. Biologists look for evidence of wild life that might be harmed by construction activities while archeologists might dig a few holes and look for evidence of previous habitation and burial sites. In most cases, when sensitive archeological evidence turns up and its location coincides with a proposed turbine foundation or road, planners simply move the structure’s location 50 m one way or another.

Large facilities draw a lot of power from a grid so grid owners want to know how much and when they will need the power. A similar question is asked on the opposite side of the coin when a wind farm wants to inject power into the grid. Its owners want to know: How much and when? Of all things encountered in the world of power generation, regardless of source, permission to inject power is hardest to get, at least in the Midwest. To inject 100 MW might require waiting three to seven years for transmission and demand to catch up with the growing supply.

Windpower Engineering & Development

The wind forecast for Alberta at 80m up will include charts like this one.

MDA EarthSat Weather says its current wind-generation forecast product has now been expanded to include AESO (Alberta). Already providing accurate and reliable hourly forecasts for ERCOT, MISO, and BPA, PJM, CAISO and IESO, this web-based system uses state-of-the-art forecast methods to produce hourly forecasts for lead times of up to ten days. In the short-term forecast, statistical techniques learn from wind data and power variations and develop highly accurate predictive relationships between present wind and future conditions. In the day-ahead and longer term forecasts, method removes model biases, and weights models according to their skill, greatly improving forecast skill over single model technique.

In verifications, correlation coefficients are near 0.9 in the day-ahead market, with mean absolute errors of less than 10% of generation capacity. “We’re always on the lookout for improvements in our techniques that can squeeze every bit of predictive power from wind, wind-generation observations, and the dynamical forecast models. We’re especially excited by our improving skill in the 3 to 4 hour range, where a combination of dynamical and statistical modeling is required for an optimal forecast,” says Dr. Dan Kirk-Davidoff, Chief Scientist at MDA EarthSat.

MDA EarthSat Weather
www.mdainformationsystems.com

Windpower Engineering & Development