Global EV review for 2016

Editor’s note: This article is the Executive Summary from a report: Global EV Outlook 2016: Beyond one million electric cars. The full 51-page report is here: http://goo.gl/PcCq5c

The EIA also has complimentary and equally interesting data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration. It shows vehicles in the U.S. travel about 3 trillion miles/year. Many EVs currently travel 3 to 4 miles/kWh and less when using heat or air conditioning. Assuming an average value of 3 miles/kWh and 3 trillion vehicle miles/year, that’s 1 trillion kWh to fuel all U.S. vehicle miles with electricity. Assuming an average rate of $0.10 per kWh, this yields added electricity sales of $100 billion.

The year 2015 saw the global threshold of 1 million electric cars (1) on the road exceeded, closing at 1.26 million. This is a symbolic achievement highlighting significant efforts deployed jointly by governments and industry over the past ten years. In 2014, only about half of today’s electric car stock existed. In 2005, electric cars were still measured in hundreds.

Global EV outlook graph pic 2

 

Ambitious targets and policy support have lowered vehicle costs, extended vehicle range and reduced consumer barriers in a number of countries.

The market shares of electric cars rose above 1% in seven countries in 2015: Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China and the United Kingdom. Market shares reached 23% in Norway and nearly 10% in the Netherlands.

China’s booming electric car sales in 2015 made it the main market worldwide, ahead of the United States, for the first time. China is also home to the strongest global deployment of e-scooters and electric buses.

Substantial new implementation of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) was also observed in 2015, on par with the growth of the global electric car stock. Public policies are encouraging publicly accessible charging development through direct investment and public-private partnerships. Such partnerships are occurring in urban areas and beyond, with charging networks aiming to enable long-distance travel on EVs even at the continental scale, as in the case of the European Union (EU). Industry, governments and early adopters have succeeded in demonstrating that electric cars can deliver the practicality, sustainability, safety and affordability characteristics expected from them, but the EV market still requires policy support to achieve widespread adoption and deployment.

Industry, governments and early adopters have succeeded in demonstrating that electric cars can deliver the practicality, sustainability, safety and affordability characteristics expected from them, but the EV market still requires policy support to achieve widespread adoption and deployment.

Battery costs have been cut by a factor four since 2008 (Figure 2) and are set to decrease further. In parallel, battery energy density needs to increase to enable longer ranges for lower prices. Technological progress and economies of scale are critical to move towards cost parity with conventional internal combustion engines (ICEs). Recent carmaker announcements suggesting EV ranges that will soon be exceeding 300 kilometres (km) give encouraging signals for the future.

Fig 2 Evolution of battery cost

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The electrification of road transport modes other than cars, namely 2-wheelers, buses and freight delivery vehicles, is currently ongoing in a few localized areas. With an estimated stock exceeding 200 million units, China is the global leader in the electric 2-wheelers market and almost the only relevant player globally, primarily because of the restriction on the use of conventional 2- wheelers in several cities to reduce local pollution. China is also leading the global deployment of electric bus fleets, with more than 170 000 buses already circulating today.

EVs of all types lie at the heart of future sustainable transport systems, alongside the optimisation of urban structures to reduce trip distances and shift mobility towards public transportation. The wide global deployment of EVs across all modes is necessary to meet sustainability targets. The EVI 20 by 20 target calls for an electric car fleet of 20 million by 2020 globally. The Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Call to Action sets a global deployment target of 100 million electric cars and 400 million electric 2  and 3-wheelers in 2030. The IEA 2DS, describing an energy system consistent with an emissions trajectory giving a 50% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C, outlines an even more ambitious deployment pathway for electric cars by 2030 (150 million) (Figure 3). Meeting these targets implies substantial market growth to develop further the current 1.26 million electric car stock, as well as the swift deployment of electric 2-wheelers and buses beyond the Chinese market.

The climate change-related benefits of EVs can be fully harvested under the condition that their use is coupled with a decarbonised grid, an additional challenge for countries that are largely dependent on fossil fuels for power generation. Investment in EV roll-out can support this transition, e.g. increasing the opportunities available to integrate variable renewable energy. Early EV adoption also brings other immediate benefits (such as air quality improvements and reduced noise).

For the rest: https://goo.gl/QcT21l

 

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