Dark yellow and green lines represent the projected cost of natural gas-fired generation based on reference case fuel prices derived from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) (EIA 2013b); for wind the dark blue line represents the generation cost associated with wind plants operating in median wind resource quality sites plus cost adders to reflect the provision of consistent capacity and energy resources to the system. More specifically, when comparing wind with new gas-fired generation (left), cost adders are included to reflect the incremental system capacity ($5/MWh as reported by EnerNex [2010], IEA [2010], Milligan and Porter [2008]) required to provide a capacity value comparable to a new combined cycle gas-fired plant and to cover incremental balancing expenditures ($2/MWh as summarized by Wiser and Bolinger [2013]) associated with the addition of variable generation into the power system. When comparing wind with existing gas-fired generation (right), as a fuel saver and assuming no need for additional capacity, only the balancing expenditures cost adder is included. 7 Wind cost reductions are based on the median, 25th, and 75th percentile literature cost reduction trajectory for wind power (Lantz et al. 2012). Bands represent uncertainty in projected costs as reported by Lantz et al. (2012) for wind and EIA (2013b) for natural gas. High and low gas prices are based on prices reported in the EIA’s AEO low and high resource recovery scenarios. The gaps between the median wind cost reduction trajectory (dark blue line) and the reference case gas-fired generation cost (dark yellow and green lines) are used to inform the development of ramp-down scenarios discussed in Section 2.

Implications of a PTC extension on U.S. wind deployment

This technical report come from NREL. The preface and executive summary are here. Preface This work responds to a request made in October 2012 by Senator Jeff Bingaman, who has since retired. At the time, Senator Bingaman was the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Senator Bingaman requested that the National

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