Editor’s note: This article is the Executive Summary and Introduction from a new report by consulting firm DNV GL. A link to the full report is below along with registration to a webcast that explains the report.
Electricity systems around the world are changing. The challenge of combating climate change, maintaining secure energy supplies and protecting electricity consumers is proving transformative. Policy is struggling to keep up with technology. Business models are being created and destroyed.
One of the most profound changes to the power system is the expanding role of solar and wind. At DNV GL, we believe that a transition to a renewables-based electricity system is possible in a range of markets – but we have become increasingly concerned that the way in which this transition is presented underplays the extent of change required.
Renewables are too often conceived as something to be ‘integrated’ into status quo arrangements. A smarter approach is needed. So we sought your insights. In a unique industry survey, over 1600 people from 71 countries provided views on a scenario in which renewables account for 70% of power sector generation. To help interpret these findings, we spoke to senior industry executives from E.ON, TEPCO, DONG Energy and NYISO to understand what the energy transition means for them. This landmark report presents the results of our research, shedding light on three dynamics shaping the energy transition underway.
Introduction
The deployment of renewables is bringing profound changes to power systems across the world. It is striking that the two renewable energy technologies which are the least expensive and are available in volume – wind and solar PV – are also both highly variable in electricity production.
We believe that a transition to a largely renewables-based electricity system is possible in a range of markets – but we have become increasingly concerned that the way in which this transition is presented underplays the extent of change required. Renewables are too often conceived as something to be ‘integrated’ into status quo arrangements. A smarter approach is needed.
So we sought your insights. In a unique industry survey, over 1600 people from 71 countries provided views on a scenario in which renewables account for 70% of power sector generation. To help interpret these findings, we spoke to senior industry executives from DONG Energy, E.ON, NYISO and TEPCO to understand what the energy transition means for them. We are very grateful to all survey respondents and interviewees who took the time to share their insights. The survey was hosted online from December 2014 to February 2015, attracting responses from across the electricity industry. Three-fifths of respondents were senior/managerial level or above.
The results shed light on three dynamics shaping the energy transition underway:
- A convergence of metrics
- A rebalancing of rules
- An expansion of horizons
DNV GL
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