The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its first Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of 2018, with forecasts through 2019. The full STEO can be downloaded here.
Non-hydropower renewables provided almost 10% of electricity generation in 2017, and its 2018 share is expected be similar before increasing to almost 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was more than 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly lower than 7% in both 2018 and 2019.
According to the report: “EIA is forecasting 2019 to be the first year wind overtakes hydropower as the leading source of renewable electricity generation, due to a combination of hydro’s cyclical nature and the continued growth in wind capacity.”
EIA is also forecasting reduced U.S. coal production in 2018, retreating by 2% following a 6% increase in 2017. The share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas, however, is expected to rise from 32% in 2017 to 33% in 2018 and to 34% in 2019, as a result of low natural gas prices.
After declining by 1.0% in 2017, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are also forecast to increase by 1.7% in 2018 and by 0.2% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, and energy prices.
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