In a nutshell:
- The Trump administration may slow global progress on climate policy, but will not scuttle it
- Demand growth for renewable energy will outpace that for fossil fuels
- Brent crude oil will average higher in 2017 compared to 2016, at $56.50 per barrel as OPEC’s cohesiveness continues to be tested
In more detail:
Climate policies will keep chipping away at fossil fuels’ role as the mainstay of global energy use, despite Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president, according to a new report by The Economist Intelligence Unit. While the election of Mr. Trump as U.S. president is not likely to halt the gradual transition towards cleaner energy globally, it will nevertheless slow it, given that the US has been a pacesetter in recent years in the transition to a low carbon economy.
“It will be difficult for a Trump administration to disentangle the U.S. from the Paris Agreement now that it has already come into force, but indifference to addressing climate change at the top policy level of the world’s second-largest emitter will still be a setback,” according to Peter Kiernan, Lead Energy Analyst The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Nevertheless the energy transition at a global level will progress incrementally, with the EIU forecasting faster growth in renewable energy consumption compared to fossil fuels in 2017. Consumption of renewables, nuclear power and natural gas will continue to outpace that of coal and oil next year.
The report also forecasts that oil prices will average higher in 2017 compared to this year, with Brent averaging $56.50/bbl, but still well below the $100/bbl level seen until the middle of 2014. “The capacity of U.S. shale drillers to reverse recent output falls will test OPEC’s ability to push prices higher,” adds Kiernan.
Download the full report at: http://www.eiu.com/industries-in-2017
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