Galen Barbose / Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley Lab tracks and analyzes state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) to inform policy-makers, program administrators, and others about the design and impacts of these policies. A central element to this work is Berkeley Lab’s U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards Annual Status Report, an annual report published in a slide-deck form that describes key trends, including recent legislative revisions, RPS policy design features, past and projected impacts on renewables development, compliance with interim targets, and compliance costs.
Data files associated with several elements of this report are also available for download and are updated periodically:
- RPS Compliance Data (XLSX)(last updated July 2017)
- RPS Demand Projections (XLSX)(last updated July 2017)
In addition, Berkeley Lab regularly conducts topical analyses of RPS-related issues, including several recent studies evaluating the costs and benefits of state RPS policies, conducted jointly with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Drawing on this varied body of work, Berkeley Lab staff routinely provide briefings on RPS policies to state policy-makers, renewable energy stakeholders, and others.
Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, the past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs.
The 2017 edition of the report presents historical data through year-end 2016 and projections through 2030. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following:
- Evolution of state RPS programs:Significant RPS-related policy revisions since the start of 2016 include increased RPS targets in DC, MD, MI, NY, RI, and OR; requirements for new wind and solar projects and other major reforms to the RPS procurement process in IL; and a new offshore wind carve-out and solar procurement program in MA.
- Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements. Nationally, the role of RPS policies has diminished over time, representing 44% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2016. However, within particular regions, RPS policies continue to play a central role in supporting RE growth, constituting 70-90% of 2016 RE capacity additions in the West, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.
- Future RPS demand and incremental needs: Meeting RPS demand growth will require roughly a 50% increase in U.S. RE generation by 2030, equating to 55 GW of new RE capacity. To meet future RPS demand, total U.S. RE generation will need to reach 13% of electricity sales by 2030 (compared to 10% today), though other drivers will also continue to influence RE growth.
- RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique state-specific policy designs.
- REC pricing trends: Prices for renewable energy certificates (RECs) used to meet general RPS obligations fell in most markets in 2016, as surplus RPS supplies emerged in many regions. Price trends for solar RECs were more varied, with a particularly pronounced drop in MD.
- RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs totaled $3.0 billion in 2015 (the most-recent year for which relatively complete data are available), which equates to 1.6% of average retail electricity bills in RPS states. Though total U.S. RPS compliance costs rose from 2014, future cost growth in most RPS states will be capped by cost containment mechanisms.
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