MAKE expects another strong year for North America in 2015 with more than nine gigawatts (GW) of wind power additions, buttressed by higher growth in the U.S. that offsets a slight annual decline in Canada. A late 2014 extension of the U.S. Production Tax Credits (PTC) helps to maintain momentum in the U.S. market through the end of 2016.
The rush to meet the PTC deadline is expected to lead to a sharp downturn in 2017 demand, despite relative stability in Canada, yielding a -64% drop in new wind power additions from 2016 to 2017 in North America. The timing of key drivers and barriers causes yearly fluctuations throughout the 10-year outlook, while the 47.2 GW of wind power growth in the U.S. and 8.5 GW in Canada result in average annual growth of 5.1% from 2015 to 2024.
Key points from the report include:
- Expired federal PTC in the U.S. underpins 13.4 GW in 2015 and 2016, but leaves uncertainty after 2016,
- Wind power’s declining LCOE will bolster more than 30 GW of growth in the U.S. from 2018 to 2024,
- Demand for wind power is escalating from commercial and industrial buyers in the U.S.,
- Natural gas power is the chief competitor to wind power in North America, and solar power is maturing, and
- After a bubble through 2017, weak demand growth and hydropower legacy halve Canada’s outlook in 2018.
An an additional feature a graphics library is available for this publication, enabling easy access and overview to key figures and tables included in the report.
MAKE’s North America Wind Power Outlook 2015 is a 60-page report containing more than 55 charts, tables, and graphs providing in-depth analysis of the wind market dynamics in the US and Canada. The report studies the key drivers and barriers for new wind power installations in North America, regional macro conditions, and regulatory frameworks. It includes 10-year market outlooks and three forecast scenarios (bull, base, and bear) for each market. Market models are illustrated, demonstrating the critical forces that are shaping demand for new wind power assets.
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