Fitch Solutions Macro Research (a unit of Fitch Group) has released a new report that indicates rapid renewable energy growth will have a limited impact on the overall power-generation mix. However, its findings also show that non-hydro renewables sector will reach more than 2.4 Terawatt (TW) of installed capacity by 2028 — with the wind and solar sectors making up 44% and 49% of the total renewables power generating capacity mix by the end of the forecast period in 2028.
What’s more: wind power will likely remain the dominant source of electricity in non-hydro renewables generation over the next decade because of its higher capacity factor.
Although it’s predicted that the solar-power sector to overtake the wind in terms of installed capacity by 2022, wind power will remain the dominant source of electricity in the non-hydro renewables electricity generation mix. This will be due to the relatively higher capacity factor of wind power technology — and, notably offshore wind — relative to that of solar technology.
Overall, non-hydro renewables capacity is predicted to grow by a total of 105% between end-2018 and 2028, in line with rapid growth in a number of power markets. Fitch Solutions forecasts a total of 80 markets to install at least 100 MW of renewables capacity over this timeframe, while for 44 markets this figure will be at least 1,000 MW.
The impact of renewables on total power generation is held back by the relatively low capacity factors registered for wind and solar power.