For the last decade, the wind industry has exhibited vast under-performance by all, including the top consultants, and a massive effort has been underway to understand where performance losses occurred. These investigations have already revealed that more sophisticated assessment methods are required to improve energy estimates.
Being able to communicate risk is a significant aspect of making good business decisions. For wind projects, the energy estimate is the most sensitive variable of a project requirement. Having confidence that the assessment is accurate and correctly identifies risk is paramount. Forensic investigation into why projects haven’t performed well in the last decade reveals no single reason as a cause. Rather, there are many reasons for the shortfall, including: losses, performance in stable conditions, wake losses, and met tower placement. Many of these issues are generally attributed to lack of sophistication in the modeling process and poor met campaign design during the development process.
Vaisala has developed a world-leading, scientific and technological approach to deal with the shortcomings that challenge more simple, engineering approaches. Advances include an ensemble approach to climate references, hourly simulations of production, high resolution NWP modeling, time-series wake modeling, and more. The approaches that Vaisala has developed consider all the latest research, and are designed to ensure alignment with actual project performance.
Vaisala will be presenting and exhibiting at the upcoming AWEA WINDPOWER event in May to discuss a better approach to energy assessment. Join the discussion at Booth 4221 and attending our speaker presentation, ” Validation of Pre-construction Energy and Uncertainty Assessments” given by Vaisala Sr. Scientist, Mark Stoelinga.
To demonstrate accuracy, Vaisala is investing in a significant validation study to prove skill and calibration of their methods. This study will create the beginning of a database that will be continually updated as they expand upon their already extensive experience. Vaisala plans to release the results of the study later this year, and will be discussing more details about the effort at AWEA Windpower.
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